发信人: ricevision (孰能生巧), 信区: SanFrancisco
标 题: worst case prediction and strategy
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Jan 4 16:38:03 2009)
Just trying to think about any possible strategies for the following worst
cases predicted by some people, for family safety.
1: how to guarantee mortgage payment? keep some cash and buy some gold, and
sell gold to pay mortgage month by month; after all gold is sold, use all
401K money to pay mortgage; till the end when I cannot pay the mortgage any
more, go back to hometown.
2: I have no concern for food. We can produce food in the back yard.
3: if criminal increases, go back to hometown. end of all dreams and stay
alive and work for the dreams of the next generation.
What else can I do?
Roger Wiegand（tigergoo翻译）
2008－12－22
"我们认为我们现在有足够的资料从基本面和技术面来对2009年做一些严肃的预报和预
测。2008年是一个令人讨厌的年份，很多事情被引爆，并且还远远没有得到修复。财政
部长保尔森告诉我们这个星期没有更多的惊喜，还告诉我，我们甚至还没有发现金融衍
生怪物的一小部分。拿纳税人的7000亿美元仅仅是一个热身。对交易商和投资者来说，
更大的问题是未来会发生什么以及何时发生。
在下面的报告中，我们将考虑全球经济的关键点，并预测2009年的结果。
2008年最重要的新闻是全球大型银行的净资产的解体以及他们对运作正常业务和提供市
场流动性贷款的脆弱的自我修复能力。
伯南克和保尔森只帮助坏孩子银行恢复流动性以保持营业状态，而不把信贷扩张提供给
西部或全球经济体的任何企业。
2009年的结果将是没有显著的银行贷款，采取更多的救助资金和撇清各种不良贷款。
我们认为最大的看点是保险业巨头美国国际集团（AIG）的巨大灾难。尽管多次注资数
十亿美元拯救，AIG仍处于千钧一发之际。
2009年的结果将是AIG的意外坠落和失败威胁全球，导致整个西方国家和亚洲国家的保
险业无法开展业务，除非使用强制保险政策。
大多数人不理解这个的怪物的滑落将产生什么后果。我们认为这几乎无法估量的，这就
是为什么保尔森给他们这么多钱。
我们的新总统决心进行一项8600亿至1万亿美元的艰巨努力，以实现新的经济复苏，尽
管他的一些想法的确是崇高，但总体规划将毫无效果，第二次大萧条仍将发生，股市将
在2009年5月和9-10月间坠落。
我们认为最严重的打击将在2009年9月的晚些时候。
在明年春天，我们看到：
（ 1 ）第二波更大的住宅按揭违约浪潮；
（ 2 ）第一波汽车消费贷款违约的大浪；
（ 3 ）超过400亿美元的信用卡违约，将打击银行贷款；
（ 4 ）第一波购物商场、办公楼和其他商业地产的抵押贷款止赎权丧失；
（ 5 ）最后，无保证金资金或定金的CDS交易将上演华丽的终场乐章！我们今天听到的
总数是500万亿美元！我甚至不能形容这个数字。
这五个融合的死亡列车将带着道琼斯指数从死猫跳的10400-10800回到7250 ，甚至6600
，或5600。
股市交易者和投资者有一个更坚实的季度，我们认为即将到来的奥巴马万亿美元的施舍
能够恢复一些股市的损失。
我们认为，提升股票市场将有助于让大多数部门获得一些恢复，并且提供了股市触底和
发现新的基地的幻想。
严峻的现实是，股价在4月或5月上旬达到峰值后进行的前所未有的高台跳水吓得美国人
和全世界不知所措。
即使这些事件和不断上升的失业率问题出现，经济观察家和分析家们继续会信誓旦旦地
说最坏的时期已经过去，底部已经出现，一个良好的、新的、熠熠生辉的世界贸易和投
资体系将在2009年秋季之前出现在我们光明的经济中。
然后，在9月末10月初，纽约，伦敦，东京和亚洲市场将发生一个巨大的崩溃。
多低才算低，多坏才是尽头？
我们认为，道琼斯可能在2009年11月1号终结，从5600附近跌至3000点，甚至1500点。
跨国公司的市盈率（PE）将降至4-7。今天，他们中的大多数接近18。
这种严重性的预测告诉了我们什么？
美国现在全国失业率触及16 ％ ，官方公布的数字只是真实数字的一半。
到2009年秋天，美国的实际失业率将接近1930年代整个大萧条时期的水平即25 ％，可
悲的是，这并不是最严重的，我们预测美国真实的失业率将达到30-40 ％ 。在密歇根
州和俄亥俄州，40 ％的失业率也并非天方夜谭。
几个欧洲国家都为失业人士建立了更大更多的社会安全网。而美国国家当局几乎没有准
备。
美国联邦政府提供食品券的部门和提供福利供应的工作将被淹没。这将是一次卡特里娜
飓风对全美国饥饿公民的袭击。
城市地区将看到犯罪率暴涨，一些城市的部分地区则完全无法居住。
在最近的报告中，我们已经看到1100万美国公民接受粮食援助、70万儿童每天挨饿。我
们怀疑接受粮食帮助的真实数字将达到3500万人，其中一些是幼小的、手无寸铁的儿童
。政府仍然会否认，而且无论如何也不准备宣布全国紧急状态。随着事态恶化，针对富
裕人群的粮食骚乱和其他暴力行为将司空见惯。
未来三年内银行倒闭的数量将达数千。另外，2011年或2012年，美元指数可能击破最近
的低点70.00，下滑到46.00。
当联邦储备委员会和美国财政部拼命印刷和分发现金以刺激停滞不前的经济，甚至超低
利率也失效时，通货膨胀或潜在的恶性通货膨胀就是很实际的。伯南克已经没有降息空
间。
消费者将破产或走向破产。相互关联的家庭户数将增加一倍和两倍，甚至与一些雇员在
同一个屋檐下。基本租金成本，按揭付款，医疗保健，食品，公用事业和税收负担过多
，而工资却在持续下跌。
在美国的一些地区，大量的住宅完全被遗弃，或只有一部分人能够完全占有。数以百万
计的新抵押贷款人没有获得通过，只有极少数人可以得到贷款。
我们正在目睹系统性崩溃。
市政府和国家陷入支出和债务缠身的困境。据报道，美国50个州中的22个有严重的预算
问题。加州是其中可怕的一个，密歇根州在技术上已经破产。
底特律将在2009年破产，并且还将有更多的意外发生。将有一连串的债券违约，其结果
将淹没这些城市、州和县，导致他们借钱越来越多。
这些闪耀光线越快通过，我们从底部开始复苏也会越快。可悲的是，复苏进程将需要经
年。
在股票市场被遗忘了多年之后，期货和商品交易商会持续获得稳定的利润。
2015年之前我们将看不到复苏的迹象。
原文：
Our 2009 Predictions
Roger Wiegand Dec 22 2008 1:23PM
"We think we now have enough data from both the fundamentals and technicals
to make some serious forecasts and predictions for 2009. While 2008 was a
nasty year when lots of things imploded, they are far from being repaired.
Treasury Secretary Paulson told us this week there are no more surprises,
which tells me we haven't even discovered but a small portion of this
monster derivative mess. His ripping-off of the taxpayers to the tune of $
700 billion is only a warm-up. However, the larger question for traders and
investors is what could happen next and when.
In the following report we take the key global economic points and suggest
the outcome for 2009." -Traderrog
The most important news for 2008 was the destruction of the big global banks
' net worth and their badly wounded ability to conduct normal business and
make market-moving loans. Ben & Hank's bailout only helped the bad-boy banks
reliquify themselves to remain somewhat solvent and stay in business. They
are doing nothing to extend credit to any business enhancing western or
global economies. The 2009 result will be no significant banker lending,
taking more bailout money and sweeping additional bad loans of all stripes
under the banker's rug and hiding the rest in back rooms.
The largest surprise in our view was the massive disaster at insurance giant
AIG. Despite numerous injections of bailout billions, AIG remains in very
serious trouble hanging on by their proverbial fingernails. The 2009 result
will be a surprise crash and failure of AIG frightening the world at large
causing ripples of failures throughout western and Asian nations unable to
conduct business without mandatory insurance policies. Most folks have no
comprehension as to the monster fallout this will create. It is in our view
literally immeasurable, and this is why Paulson handed them so much money.
Our new president is determined to hand out $860 Billion to One Trillion
dollars in a Herculean effort to literally buy a new economic recovery.
While some of his ideas are noble indeed the overall plan
will have little effect and Great Depression II shall take hold in 2009 with
crashing stock markets in May and September-October 2009. We think the
worst of the worst hits in later September 2009.
During the spring of next year we see:
(1) A second larger wave of residential housing mortgage failures; (2) The
first big wave of auto loan failures and repossessions; (3) Over $40 billion
in credit card defaults, smashing the bank lenders; (4) The first wave of
commercial mortgage failures and foreclosures on shopping malls, office
buildings and other commercials; (5) And finally, the grand smashing finale
of CDS Credit Default Swaps originated with No margin money or down payments
! We heard today the total is 500 trillion! I cannot even fathom that number
. These five converging train wrecks could take the Dow from a dead cat
bounce of 10400-10800 back to 7250, or even 6600, or 5600.
Shares traders and investors have one more solid quarter, in our view to
regain some stock market losses on the forthcoming Obama Trillion Dollar
handouts. We think the rising share markets will help most all sectors gain
some recovery and provide the illusion the bottoms are in and new bases
found. The stark reality hits home after shares peak in April or early May
taking an unprecedented selling high dive scaring the wits out of Americans
and the watching world.
Even with these events and rising unemployment and social problems, economic
observers and analysts could continue to plead the worst is over, the
bottoms are in and a fine, new, shiny world of trading and investing in our
bright economy lies just ahead for the fall of 2009. Then, in later
September and early October, the New York, London, Tokyo and Asian markets
take a monster crash. How low is low and how bad can it get? We think the
Dow could end-up on November 1st, 2009 anywhere from 5,600 to a low of 3,000
or even 1,500. One guideline will be a falling overshoot of PE's on our
largest, so-called international corporations posting lows of 4 to7. Today,
many of them are near 18. What does this tell us about the severity of our
projections?
Unemployment nationally in the USA is now touching 16%. The officially
posted number is somewhere near half of that. By the fall of 2009, American
REAL UNEMPLOYMENT WILL BE NEAR THE ALLTIME 1930'S DEPRESSION HIGH OF 25%
UNEMPLOYED. SADLY, THAT IS NOT THE WORST AS IT GETS MORE DIRE. WE PREDICT
REAL, USA UNEMPLOYMENT REACHES 30-40%. IN THE RUST BELT STATES OF MICHIGAN
AND OHIO, WHILE 40% IS NOT UNREALISTIC.
Several European nations have larger, more established social safety nets
for the unemployed. In the USA, local, regional and national authorities are
not nearly as prepared. The American federal government departments for
food stamps and the job of providing welfare provisions will be overwhelmed.
This will be a Katrina event for the hungry citizens of the United States.
Urban areas will see skyrocketing crime and in parts of some cities, life
could become totally uninhabitable.
The last report we've seen on those receiving food handouts and related
welfare amounted to 11 million USA citizens with 700,000 children going
hungry each day. We suspect the true amount of those needing food help will
rise to 35,000,000 with an untold tragic number of them being little,
defenseless children. Governments remain in denial and are not prepared for
this national emergency whatsoever. As things worsen, food riots and others
with violence aimed at the "haves' are common.
The number of bank failures over the next three years will be in the
thousands. In addition, the US Dollar's valuation could break recent lows
near 70.00 on the index, dropping to 46.00 by 2011 or 2012.
Inflation or potentially hyperinflation is quite real as the Federal Reserve
and US Treasury strain to print and circulate cash to prod our stalled
economy. It is simply not working even with the dramatically lower interest
rates of late. Benny Bernanke is out of rate cut running room.
Consumers are broke and going broker. Households of interrelated families
are doubling and tripling up even with several employed members being under
one roof. Basic costs of rent, mortgage payments, health care, food,
utilities and taxes are too much to bear on stagnant and in some cases
falling wages. In some areas of America, there are entire subdivisions of
homes totally abandoned or existing with only a hand full of occupants. The
millions thrown at lenders for new mortgages are not getting through to
buyers, as there are fewer of them. We are witnessing system breakdown.
Municipalities and states are sinking into a spending, debt-ridden morass.
It was reported today that 22 of 50 USA states are in serious budgetary
trouble. California is one of those in terrible condition and Michigan is
already technically broke as are many of her cities. Detroit will file
bankruptcy in 2009 and there will many other surprises as well. There will
be a cascade of bond defaults and the outcome will cap the ability of these
cities, states and counties to borrow ever more.
The shining light through all of this is the faster we find the bottom the
faster we can recover. Sadly, the recovery process will take years. Futures
and commodities traders should continue to earn steady profits as the stock
markets slide into oblivion for years. We see no recovery until 2015.
*作者Roger Wiegand是Trade Tracks公司著名黄金分析师。
*另外，LEAP/E2020团队预警：2009年3月是金融危机急速恶化的转折点，2009年3月份
，将与2008年9月的海啸一样严重，这次是全球大多数的养老金化为乌有。全世界到那
时才会明白金融危机远比1930年代大萧条严重的多。LEAP/E2020团队预警：2009年夏全
球货币体系垮塌，美元贬值90%
（LEAP/E2020团队是欧洲政治经济研究团队，自2007年以来对金融危机的研究和预警，
大多数成为现实，其对时点有良好的预测。）
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